Thank you for the question. Three things to consider:

1. The COVID-19 pandemic is not a wholly unexpected or "black swan" event. In the work of foresight, what is happening now is considered a "wildcard," i.e., something we knew could happen, but we didn't know when. Indeed, there has been considerable discussion of the possibility of a devastating global pandemic over many years, including in a prescient Bill Gates TED talk from 2015.

2. Now that we're in the middle of a crisis, the best option is for chief staff executives and their teams to monitor and manage their associations' day-to-day actions, with the benefit of board perspective and support. Consistent with the duty of foresight, boards (with staff assistance) must focus their attention on learning with the future to understand, anticipate, and prepare for the "next normal" worlds that could plausibly occur in the ensuing 12-18-24-36 months. I use the term "next normal" here because I don't believe the environment that emerges in the immediate aftermath of the current crisis will last. We're going to be feeling this turbulence for some time as we move through different stages.

3. We are all feeling vulnerable right now. Vulnerability is a natural human reaction to risk and uncertainty. Association staff and voluntary decision-makers are not exempt, and it will be highly detrimental to meaningful collaboration if they choose to hide their vulnerability because they want to be "business-like" or "professional." Each of us needs to share what we're feeling so we can support one another, move beyond coping with the current situation, and concentrate on building our associations, stakeholders, and fields to thrive for the remainder of this decade.

Thank you again for your question. I hope you find my response helpful. You're welcome to reach out with any follow-up you may have.

The most important thing for association decision-makers to understand is that while there is considerable hype circulating about artificial intelligence (AI), it is a technology platform that really doesn't need hype. AI is changing the future landscape in virtually every field of human endeavor and, as it becomes more powerful over the next 60+ months, AI's disruptive impact will grow.

In this context, association decision-makers should think of AI as both a substantial threat to the current state of the professions and industries they serve, and a huge opportunity to imagine a more compelling future for existing and emerging stakeholders alike. Association boards, chief staff executives and other decision-makers need to learn with the future to identify the best approaches for addressing both sides of the challenge that AI creates.
 
Please register for the Foresight First Briefing, Artificial Intelligence: What Association Decision-Makers Need to Know, to be held on Tuesday, June 27 at 2 pm EDT. Please use promo code AI2017 when you sign up.

In a world experiencing profound, relentless and accelerating transformation, association boards (with the support of their staff partners and other governing contributors) must fulfill the duty of foresight, i.e, an obligation to learn with the future as much as possible on behalf of their organizations, their fields and, of course, the stakeholders they serve. Artificial intelligence (AI) is at the leading edge of that future, an emerging technology platform that is already raising serious questions about the future of work, including automation, the relationship between humans and highly intelligent machines and the augmentation of human performance. No profession or industry will be left untouched by AI's far-reaching impact.

Is it too early for association decision-makers to focus their attention on AI? At the risk of being impolite, let answer this question with a different question. Based on the totality of our experience with tech-driven societal transformation over the last 20+ years, how do we know it's not already too late? There is only one way to find out: embrace the duty of foresight and pursue the work of learning about AI without further delay.

Please register for the Foresight First Briefing, Artificial Intelligence: What Association Decision-Makers Need to Know, to be held on Tuesday, June 27 at 2 pm EDT. Please use promo code AI2017 when you sign up. 

This is an important and highly sensitive question to which I would like to offer a response. To be respectful of all concerned, however, I would prefer to share it directly with the person who posed the question. Please email me at jeff [at] principledinnovation [dot] com so we can figure out the best way to make that happen.

This is an intriguing question that should be investigated further. At the moment, however, I don’t have any data (anecdotal or otherwise) to offer a meaningful response.

The obvious case is when an association’s financial resource limitations make it impractical to maintain a standalone physical location and/or staff. The more interesting opportunity is when an association can develop a serious strategic advantage to its business model, through the cost savings created by multiple management, through the use of technology and through the application of the unique knowledge and expertise of the association management company.

This is a really interesting question! Since I don’t do predictions, let me reframe the question to offer an idea for a position that associations can create today to prepare for the future. I think associations would benefit enormously from the role of “chief foresight officer.” Through this role, associations would be able to build a deeper capacity for foresight at all levels of the their organizations. The focus on foresight would help manage risk while accelerating the pace of value creation through innovation. The chief foresight officer would work with the board on the duty of foresight and with the CEO and C-Suite peers to ensure they can better understand plausible futures for the association and the field it serves.

Yes, I will be presenting a full-day pre-conference workshop at #ASAE16 on “Building Your Association’s Capacity for Foresight,” on Saturday, August 13, 2016 from 8 am-4 pm. It is going to be an excellent session, and you will receive a certificate for your attendance. You can use promo code JEFF10 when you register to receive a discount.

You can watch a preview of the workshop at http://pinnovat.es/asae16foresightworkshoppreview.

Thanks for your question Brian. The story you share captures my attention for its bluntness and, quite honestly, the underlying fear it reveals. While I have not heard other association CEOs express themselves in exactly this way, it does not surprise me that some CEOs believe their organizations are in a struggle for survival. In some fields, that is almost certainly true.

 The powerful forces of societal transformation, including the disruptive impact of technology, will destroy some jobs, fundamentally alter the way many jobs are performed and create entirely new jobs. No matter how you look at it, this dynamic environment creates strategic challenges for associations for which many senior staff and voluntary decision-makers are not yet prepared.

The overwhelming majority of associations operate on “membership-centric business models,” which are business models that make the selling of memberships the centerpiece of value creation, delivery and capture. In these business models, the focus of organizational decision-making is always on membership sales and how to maximize them, and boards use membership metrics to evaluate the health of their organizations.

Among my concerns about membership-centric business models are 1) they focus almost entirely on optimizing one form of value, i.e., membership sales, to the exclusion of creating thicker forms of value that can help stakeholders solve their problems, meet their needs and achieve their outcomes, 2) they create unnecessary barriers to entry into meaningful value-based relationships with stakeholders for whom the membership relationship is not the right fit and 3) they typically require significant investments of human time, energy and attention for minimal return.